Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at June Month-ender with PRs
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1400
· median 1400
· range 1400–1400
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1137
Q1 1166
Q3 1313
1421
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 22.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Neos | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
