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Fire Crux MerlinTier 2

at June Month-ender with PRs

decks
1 (5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5 3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8% avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
47.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1400 · median 1400 · range 1400–1400 (1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1137 Q1 1166 Q3 1313 1421
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 22.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.3% -4.4
Wind Shadowstrike 11.1% 0
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 5.6% 0
Fire Exia 5.6% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 5.6% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.6% 0
Slimes 5.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.9% +1.5
Water Fractal 5.6% 0
Water Genbu 5.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Neos 5.6% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 5.6% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 5.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.8% -3.5
Wind Lorraine 5.6% 0
Wind Razorgale 5.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Decklists · 1 from this event

The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/28100/archetypes/Fire Crux Merlin